USA is moving on a double edged sword. It is fighting terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan and trying to defeat Al Qaeda and other terrorist networks. It is also fighting anti-American sentiments and loss in legitimacy in Pakistan. It is in US interests that it nips the terror outfits in their buds but the task is becoming increasingly difficult due to various factors under play around the globe.
Firstly, the US is not as dominant today as it was in 1991. It remains the sole superpower but it has suffered huge erosion of relative superiority to many other rising countries like China, Brazil, India, etc. in economic, military, political and strategic affairs. The recession has further reduced its flexibility to fight at multiple fronts simultaneously. This is clearly reflected in US’s relying on U.K. and France for launching attacks on Libya. It is appearing that US is sinking under the burden of responsibilities that US has put upon itself like maintaining balance of power and stability around the world and providing public goods like maritime security, internet, GPS, etc. The US economy is fragile with unemployment remaining at high levels. It is being feared that US is about to become the new Japan facing structural and demographical constraints to further economic expansion. The recent operation against Osama bin laden has worsened US-Pakistan ties as Pakistan tries to save face against global embarrassment on intelligence and military goof ups. Pakistan has asked US to limit its presence in Pakistan territory. The vengeful attacks of Taliban on Pakistani nationals are further eroding US legitimacy in Pakistan as the common man in Pakistan bears the brunt of US operation.
Secondly, the rise of China and resurgence of Russia is leading to lesser and lesser free hand for US at multilateral institutions like UN, IMF, etc. The US has to shell out concessions to them bit by bit in order to let its resolutions and proposals to be passed. In medium to long term, the prospects of US playing single handed role in international affairs are fading.
Thirdly, the Middle-East has also emerged as focal point of political activity where US strategic interests were perhaps most safely preserved. The Arab spring is going to be a boon or a bane cannot be said with surety. There is possibility of many of these countries ending up in civil war or another reign of corrupt regimes while true democracy may be very difficult to sustain in short to medium terms. The impact that all this can have on oil prices and oil supplies has kept the world worried. The fear that the future regimes may be more assertive and independent ( backed by popular support and legitimacy ) in deciding their oil and gas sales leaves much to speculation. Hence, it is difficult for US to frame a response to the rising tide of democratic movement all across Arab world. Democracy is a value that US has argued to promote all over the world and yet it is has sheltered some of the least democratic regimes for its own interests. Now the US is being forced to accept positions which are more value laden than realist.
Fourthly, the rising capability of countries like Iran, N. Korea, etc. to make nuclear weapons has further worried US as it is supposed to look after not only its own security but also protect its close allies from any such attacks. In this interconnected world, intelligence and crime investigation is becoming increasing costlier while it is becoming increasingly easier to launch small scale attacks. All these factors have made US position vulnerable. It is the sole superpower; hence it is very lonely also. It will take creative approach from its leadership to direct the world to future where US remains as powerful as it is today.
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